November brought a mix of stability and uncertainty to the financial landscape. Markets hovered near record levels for much of the month before losing steam as AI-driven enthusiasm met softer earnings, the Federal Reserve reshaped rate expectations, and the government shutdown limited the flow of key economic data.
How Major Indexes Performed
Market performance reflected sharp shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve policy and quick rotations within the tech sector. The S&P 500 edged up 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.64%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32%. Hopes for easier policy helped fuel late-month rebounds, though profit-taking in stretched tech leaders limited broader momentum.
Policy Signals in a Data-Light Month
November’s policy backdrop was shaped as much by missing data as by the data that did arrive. The extended federal shutdown erased October’s Consumer Price Index report and delayed payroll figures, leaving markets and policymakers without clarity on recent inflation or labor trends. With fewer data points, comments from Fed officials carried more weight. Some argued that recent rate moves brought policy closer to neutral, while others supported another cut in December. Meanwhile, FOMC minutes showed a divide among policymakers, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the path forward.
Labor and Inflation Trends
With October’s household survey never completed, investors now await a combined October–November labor report in mid-December. Fed officials highlighted competing influences on inflation, from productivity gains linked to AI investment to potential pressures from tariff and immigration shifts. These crosscurrents kept the inflation outlook cloudy. Several officials emphasized that inflation had edged higher again, suggesting that current policy may be exerting less downward pressure than earlier in the year.
Housing Market Developments
The housing market showed both stability and strain. Existing-home sales held at a 4.1 million annual pace, with prices up modestly year-over-year. But inventory remained tight, and national price gains masked sharp regional differences. Some areas saw softer conditions, with rising delistings and widespread price cuts in October. Although forecasts point to gradual improvement through 2026, the present environment remains defined by longer listing times, lower volume, and buyers gaining leverage. Demographic trends also continued to shift, with the median homebuyer age rising to 59 and first-time buyers reaching an average age of 40.
What to Watch Moving Forward
The mixed signals from November offer useful markers heading into year-end. Fed policy appears to be easing, but divided views and incomplete data make firm conclusions difficult. AI and mega-cap tech remain influential forces in market performance, even as recent swings highlight the value of selectivity. Key updates from the Federal Reserve on December 10th and upcoming AI sector reports will help clarify the trajectory.
As the year wraps up, it remains important to stay diversified, manage risk, and maintain a long-term perspective. For guidance tailored to your goals, we encourage you to reach out to our financial team for personalized support.
